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ASML (ASML) — Downtrend in force
ASML (ASML) is trading at $1,731.97, +102.97 (+6.32%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is down with a +21.2% move. Price is -12.9% from its 6-month high and +38.1% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~56%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 4 bullish, 4 bearish, 0 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend, stabilising
ASML (ASML) is trading at $1,731.97. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **down** with a +21.2% move.
The 6-month trend is down, but the last ~20 sessions are up 0.3% — early stabilisation. Price is -12.9% from the high and +38.1% from the low.
Price is above the 15-day MA ($1,696.05, +2.1%) and below the 50-day SMA ($1,760.40).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $1,731.97, upper $1,863.75, middle $1,714.51, lower $1,565.27. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 17.4% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Healthy pullback
RSI(14) is 52.2. Above 50 — bullish momentum intact, no exhaustion.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-22.27, signal $-24.86, histogram +2.594.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Distribution — sellers in control
Down-day volume exceeds up-day volume (ratio 0.76). Price falls on heavier volume than it rises on — sellers are more aggressive than buyers.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($1,731.97) is +9.4% above the anchored VWAP ($1,583.09). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $1,731.97. Resistance above: $1,761.04, $1,779.65, $1,823.88. Support below: $1,730.29, $1,703.40, $1,686.01.
Watch $1,761.04 as the first upside level to clear, and $1,730.29 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$1,761.04
Resistance
$1,779.65
Resistance
$1,823.88
Support
$1,730.29
Support
$1,703.40
Support
$1,686.01
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (+21.2% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($1,760.40).
- RSI (14) Bullish RSI 52 — holding above 50, momentum intact.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+2.594) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bullish Price in the upper half of the bands (%B 0.56).
- Volume profile Bearish Down-day volume exceeds up-day (ratio 0.76) — distribution.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($1,583.09).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-07T14:03:03.589118516Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.