Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — Downtrend in force
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is trading at $856.96, +47.82 (+5.91%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is down with a +15.5% move. Price is -19.5% from its 6-month high and +28.4% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~47%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 2 bullish, 5 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is trading at $856.96. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **down** with a +15.5% move.
Price is -19.5% from the 6-month high and +28.4% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~47%.
Price is on the 15-day MA ($855.95) and below the 50-day SMA ($917.17).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $856.96, upper $944.75, middle $868.79, lower $792.83. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 17.5% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Below 50
RSI(14) is 49.5. Momentum has faded; the bullish case needs rebuilding.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-21.96, signal $-24.17, histogram +2.217.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 0.88) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($856.96) is +1.0% above the anchored VWAP ($848.38). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $856.96. Resistance above: $893.19, $909.60, $935.00. Support below: $838.33, $792.83, $776.00.
Watch $893.19 as the first upside level to clear, and $838.33 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$893.19
Resistance
$909.60
Resistance
$935.00
Support
$838.33
Support
$792.83
Support
$776.00
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (+15.5% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($917.17).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 50 — below 50, momentum fading.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+2.217) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.42).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($848.38).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-07T13:16:26.124759301Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.