Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — Uptrend in force
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is trading at $865.76, +39.12 (+2.08%) on the session. Over the last 128 sessions the trend is up with a +20.0% move. Price is -18.7% from its 6-month high and +20.0% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~26%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 5 bullish, 2 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Strong uptrend in force
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is trading at $865.76. Over the last 128 sessions the trend is **up** with a +20.0% move.
Price is -18.7% from the 6-month high and +20.0% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~26%.
Price is above the 15-day MA ($819.78, +5.6%) and above the 50-day SMA ($822.49).
Bollinger Bands Momentum extension — closing above the upper band
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $865.76, upper $856.44, middle $815.17, lower $773.90. Price is momentum extension — closing above the upper band.
Bandwidth is 10.1% of price — moderate. Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Overbought
RSI(14) is 78.8. Strong but not yet extreme — approaching the 80 line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $6.39, signal $-1.08, histogram +7.465.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 1.16) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money accumulating
The Accumulation/Distribution line is rising and sitting well off highs. Institutions are not aggressively distributing — large funds still appear net long.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($865.76) is -1.3% below the anchored VWAP ($877.11). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 1 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $865.76. Resistance above: $887.91. Support below: $859.62, $812.26, $802.44.
Watch $887.91 as the first upside level to clear, and $859.62 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$887.91
Support
$859.62
Support
$812.26
Support
$802.44
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bullish Linear-regression slope is up (+20.0% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($822.49).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 79 — overbought, mean-reversion risk.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+7.465) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bullish Price in the upper half of the bands (%B 1.11).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bullish A/D line slope is rising — institutions accumulating.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($877.11).
Generated from 128 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-06T15:31:50.182274957Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.