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ERIE (ERIE) — Downtrend in force
ERIE (ERIE) is trading at $222.32, -0.11 (38.8%) on the session. Over the last 128 sessions the trend is down with a -12.6% move. Price is -17.2% from its 6-month high and +7.3% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~27%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 1 bullish, 7 bearish, 0 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
ERIE (ERIE) is trading at $222.32. Over the last 128 sessions the trend is **down** with a -12.6% move.
Price is -17.2% from the 6-month high and +7.3% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~27%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($227.83, -2.4%) and below the 50-day SMA ($245.26).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $222.32, upper $255.71, middle $232.56, lower $209.41. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 19.9% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Weakening
RSI(14) is 24.8. Nearing the 30 oversold line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-7.72, signal $-6.95, histogram -0.775.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Distribution — sellers in control
Down-day volume exceeds up-day volume (ratio 0.70). Price falls on heavier volume than it rises on — sellers are more aggressive than buyers.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($222.32) is -6.5% below the anchored VWAP ($237.69). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $222.32. Resistance above: $222.83, $244.37, $254.58. Support below: $221.10, $216.75, $209.41.
Watch $222.83 as the first upside level to clear, and $221.10 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$222.83
Resistance
$244.37
Resistance
$254.58
Support
$221.10
Support
$216.75
Support
$209.41
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (-12.6% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($245.26).
- RSI (14) Bullish RSI 25 — oversold, bounce setup.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-0.775) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.28).
- Volume profile Bearish Down-day volume exceeds up-day (ratio 0.70) — distribution.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($237.69).
Generated from 128 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-06T15:32:24.931551133Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.