ES (ES) — Downtrend in force
ES (ES) is trading at $72.13, +0.54 (+0.75%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is down with a +6.7% move. Price is -5.3% from its 6-month high and +8.4% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~21%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 2 bullish, 5 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
ES (ES) is trading at $72.13. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **down** with a +6.7% move.
Price is -5.3% from the 6-month high and +8.4% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~21%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($73.51, -1.9%) and above the 50-day SMA ($72.00).
Bollinger Bands Near the lower band — weakness
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $72.13, upper $76.16, middle $73.78, lower $71.40. Price is near the lower band — weakness.
Bandwidth is 6.5% of price — contracted (low volatility, breakout pending). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Below 50
RSI(14) is 38.1. Momentum has faded; the bullish case needs rebuilding.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-0.08, signal $0.34, histogram -0.412.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 0.84) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($72.13) is +1.7% above the anchored VWAP ($70.91). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $72.13. Resistance above: $72.70, $73.78, $74.69. Support below: $71.86, $70.71, $69.49.
Watch $72.70 as the first upside level to clear, and $71.86 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$72.70
Resistance
$73.78
Resistance
$74.69
Support
$71.86
Support
$70.71
Support
$69.49
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (+6.7% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($72.00).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 38 — below 50, momentum fading.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-0.412) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.15).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($70.91).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-07T14:01:57.893208260Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.