Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) — Uptrend in force
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is trading at $499.86, +48.76 (+10.81%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is up with a +20.9% move. Price is +0.0% from its 6-month high and +41.7% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~50%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 6 bullish, 1 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Strong uptrend in force
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is trading at $499.86. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **up** with a +20.9% move.
Price is 0.0% from the 6-month high and +41.7% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~50%.
Price is above the 15-day MA ($434.01, +15.2%) and above the 50-day SMA ($407.01).
Bollinger Bands Near the upper band — momentum hot
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $499.86, upper $514.08, middle $423.83, lower $333.57. Price is near the upper band — momentum hot.
Bandwidth is 42.6% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Extreme overbought
RSI(14) is 84.0. Mean-reversion risk is elevated; momentum often stalls here.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $27.55, signal $16.26, histogram +11.290.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Accumulation — buyers in control
Over the recent 19 sessions, average up-day volume is 1.49× down-day volume. Price rises on heavier volume than it falls on — a sign buyers are more committed than sellers.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money on hold
The A/D line slope is flat and the line is near highs — institutions are neither aggressively accumulating nor distributing.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($499.86) is +23.7% above the anchored VWAP ($404.18). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 1 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $499.86. Resistance above: $514.08. Support below: $423.83, $392.85, $388.22.
Watch $514.08 as the first upside level to clear, and $423.83 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$514.08
Support
$423.83
Support
$392.85
Support
$388.22
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bullish Linear-regression slope is up (+20.9% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($407.01).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 84 — overbought, mean-reversion risk.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+11.290) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bullish Price in the upper half of the bands (%B 0.92).
- Volume profile Bullish Up-day volume 1.49× down-day volume — accumulation.
- A/D line Neutral A/D line slope is flat.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($404.18).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-07T13:16:29.085561957Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.