ULTA (ULTA) — Uptrend in force
ULTA (ULTA) is trading at $543.42, +30.59 (+5.96%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is up with a -21.9% move. Price is -23.1% from its 6-month high and +20.6% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~32%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 5 bullish, 1 bearish, 2 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Strong uptrend in force
ULTA (ULTA) is trading at $543.42. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **up** with a -21.9% move.
Price is -23.1% from the 6-month high and +20.6% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~32%.
Price is above the 15-day MA ($508.93, +6.8%) and above the 50-day SMA ($482.37).
Bollinger Bands Near the upper band — momentum hot
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $543.42, upper $553.42, middle $500.05, lower $446.68. Price is near the upper band — momentum hot.
Bandwidth is 21.4% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Overbought
RSI(14) is 78.9. Strong but not yet extreme — approaching the 80 line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $17.70, signal $11.84, histogram +5.853.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 1.20) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money on hold
The A/D line slope is flat and the line is well off highs — institutions are neither aggressively accumulating nor distributing.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($543.42) is +3.1% above the anchored VWAP ($526.90). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 1 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $543.42. Resistance above: $550.77. Support below: $500.05, $482.79, $471.20.
Watch $550.77 as the first upside level to clear, and $500.05 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$550.77
Support
$500.05
Support
$482.79
Support
$471.20
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bullish Linear-regression slope is up (-21.9% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($482.37).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 79 — overbought, mean-reversion risk.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+5.853) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bullish Price in the upper half of the bands (%B 0.91).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Neutral A/D line slope is flat.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($526.90).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-07T14:02:56.644679801Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.