UPS (UPS) — Downtrend in force
UPS (UPS) is trading at $104.07, -0.16 (-0.15%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is down with a -11.8% move. Price is -13.3% from its 6-month high and +9.8% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~35%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 0 bullish, 7 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
UPS (UPS) is trading at $104.07. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **down** with a -11.8% move.
Price is -13.3% from the 6-month high and +9.8% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~35%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($109.18, -4.7%) and below the 50-day SMA ($109.26).
Bollinger Bands Near the lower band — weakness
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $104.07, upper $120.30, middle $110.61, lower $100.91. Price is near the lower band — weakness.
Bandwidth is 17.5% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Below 50
RSI(14) is 34.5. Momentum has faded; the bullish case needs rebuilding.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-1.38, signal $-0.40, histogram -0.983.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 0.80) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($104.07) is -1.3% below the anchored VWAP ($105.49). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 2 support levels
Current price $104.07. Resistance above: $105.49, $108.00, $109.40. Support below: $102.83, $100.91.
Watch $105.49 as the first upside level to clear, and $102.83 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$105.49
Resistance
$108.00
Resistance
$109.40
Support
$102.83
Support
$100.91
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (-11.8% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($109.26).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 34 — below 50, momentum fading.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-0.983) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.16).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($105.49).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-07T14:02:57.185075399Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.